With just one regular season game left on the schedule, the college football season is poised to finally sort out the major conference and playoff races.
What can we expect from the Week 13 slate of games? This week, we turn to FPI to guide us in making our own picks for the biggest matchups.
Place your bets: College football picks, predictions against the spread
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Devised by ESPN analysts, its rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
Georgia Tech at Georgia (-35.5) pick: Don’t lose any sleep over this one, Bulldog fans, as UGA has the 98.7 percent shot to win, compared to Tech’s 1.3 percent chance. So you’re saying there’s a chance? (We’re not.) College Football HQ pick: Georgia 41-7
Michigan at Ohio State (-7.5) pick: A surprise from the computer in what looks like a pretty evenly-matched game, but the Buckeyes have the larger 71.8 percent chance of victory, while Michigan sits at 28.2 percent. College Football HQ pick: Ohio State 31-27
South Carolina at Clemson (-14.5) pick: The Gamecocks are coming off a thrashing over a good Tennessee team, but Clemson still owns this rivalry as far as the index thinks, projecting it will win with 88.9 percent likelihood. College Football HQ pick: Clemson 34-17
Louisville at Kentucky (-3) pick: Newly-ranked Louisville has the slight 56.1 percent edge to beat UK, which sits at 43.9 percent to win after losing three of the last four this season. College Football HQ pick: Kentucky 23-20
Auburn at Alabama (-22) pick: Another big edge for the Crimson Tide, which has the 94.5 percent chance to win the Iron Bowl and move to 10 wins and sitting just outside playoff contention. College Football HQ pick: Alabama 36-13
Oregon (-3) at Oregon State pick: The index favors the Ducks by a 57.4 percent margin to beat their rivals and earn the right to play USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game. College Football HQ pick: Oregon 31-27
Purdue (-10.5) at Indiana pick: Give the Boilermakers a 71.5 percent edge over IU with the West Division still up for grabs, but also with a costly loss to division contender Iowa that could come into play. College Football HQ pick: Purdue 30-21
Iowa State at TCU (-10) pick: The undefeated Horned Frogs can’t afford to look past the Cyclones with no margin for error as playoff selection looms. The index gives TCU a 73.2 percent chance to win. College Football HQ pick: TCU 28-17
Michigan State at Penn State (-18.5) pick: The Land Grant Trophy should go to Penn State, which has the strong 88.2 percent chance to beat a deflated Spartans team and move to 10 wins to close out. College Football HQ pick: Penn State 36-17
Utah (-29.5) at Colorado pick: Expect a strong finish for the Utes, who have a 98.0 percent chance to take down the Pac-12’s punching bag. College Football HQ pick: Utah 40-10
LSU (-10) at Texas A&M pick: LSU can’t afford a third loss with the SEC Championship Game coming up and sitting just outside the playoff rankings, with a 73.4 percent shot to move past the reeling Aggies. College Football HQ pick: LSU 30-17
UCF (-19.5) at USF pick: A shot at the AAC title game is still within grasp for UCF, which has the 89.0 percent shot to close out with the win. College Football HQ pick: UCF 43-22
Notre Dame at USC (-5.5) pick: A shot at the playoff is on the line as USC needs to win out to stay in contention with a spot in the Pac-12 title game already clinched, and a 65.5 percent shot to defend home field, according to the index. College Football HQ pick: USC 34-31
Tennessee (-14) at Vanderbilt pick: Coming off that ugly loss at South Carolina, the Vols need to make a statement here that they’re still a force, with a New Year’s bowl on the line against a Vandy team that’s suddenly won two straight after dropping 26 SEC games in a row. Big Orange still has the 93.2 percent edge here. College Football HQ pick: Tennessee 38-19
Kansas at Kansas State (-11.5) pick: A shot at the Big 12 title game is in the cards for the Wildcats, who have the 85.4 percent shot to take down KU. College Football HQ pick: Kansas State 37-24
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